A different kind of betting

We present you a different point of view for betting.

For example let’s see tonight match from Primera Division Real Sociedad- Mallorca

According to our opinion, the game could finish without a winner or with little advantage for the home team.

First type of betting

Odds for a draw: around 3.25

Odds for a tight home win by exactly one goal: around 4.00

To back both bets will give you a net profit around +80%

We suggest you to pay attention on Asian Handicap for this game. We need Handicaps which can replace the bet for a draw match and the bet for a tight win. For instance:

Second type of betting

Bet #1 Mallorca +1                           Odds around 1.35

Bet #2 Real Sociedad + 0 (1 DnB)   Odds around 1.50

These two bets cover all possible outcomes, but the profit is in exactly two of them (X or Real Sociedad win by one goal). We bet, for example, 1 euro for each bet. Total stake: 2 euro.

The scenarios are:

Real Sociedad win by two goals or more: we loss -0.50 euro (-25% of total stake)

Real Sociedad win by exactly one goal: we earn +0.50 euro (+25% of total stake)

The match is draw: we earn +0.35 euro (+17% of total stake)

Mallorca win: we loss -0.65 euro (-34% of total stake)

If we look at the probabilities for the outcomes according to the bookmakers’ odds, we’ll see:

Probability for a draw match: 30.8% (100/odd)

Probability for a tight home win: 25%

Total: 55.8% probability for any of both outcomes. When we deduct the margin (which brings a part of the bookmakers’ profit) the probability is around 50% or less.

It means that they expect we’ll win not more than 50% betting that way.

Let’s compare the Asian Handicap betting with the first two bets- if we bet two consecutive times on two games and we have one correct prediction, we’ll lose -20% of our stakes. (+80% of the correct one -100% of the lost one)

But if we do the same with Asian Handicap betting we lose between -17% and 0%. The second kind of betting is really better than the first kind of betting (bet on draw + bet on tight home win).

For long time betting the Asian Handicap is good tool, but you need littler more than 50% correct predictions if you want to beat the bookies that way.